000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Jova is centered near 15.7N 113.1W, or about 490 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California, at 07/0300 UTC, moving west- northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Peak seas are near 29 ft, extending out as far as 360 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. A solid core intense convection is noted within 120 nm from the center. In addition, numerous moderate to scattered strong convective bands extend far out from the center, and encompass a broad area from 08N to 19N between 106W and 123W. Jova is now a Category Five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the 12 to 24 hours. In a couple of days, Jova is forecast to start weakening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has its axis along 91W north of 03N to inland Guatemala, It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 89W and 93W. A weak tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 03N to 16N. It moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed behind the wave from 06N to 12N between 97W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific near 10N85W and continues to 11N96W to 12N111W. It resumes SW of Hurricane Jova at 11N119W to 10N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 123W-130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 08N138W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 03N to 08N E of 85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Category Five Hurricane Jova that is located about 490 nm south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong winds in association with Hurricane Jova are ongoing W of 108W and S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to to locally fresh north winds are N of these islands to the W of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12 to 15 kt, with 8 to 11 ft seas W of 104W and S of 21N. For the remaining waters, seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Major Hurricane Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri and Fri night. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. Pulses of fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will commence Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate gap winds have developed this evening. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Sat night. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Category Five Hurricane Jova. Jova is expected to impact the waters W of Clarion Island through Fri, then continue moving W. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 5 to 7 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in southeast swell south of about 07N and west of about 118W. For the forecast, large long-period swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ KONARIK