189 AXPZ20 KNHC 062138 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Jova is centered near 14.9N 111.7W, or about 490 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 06/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are presently to near 27 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows an apparent small eye feature. A wide and solid ring of very deep convection (white on the Dvorak BD curve) surround the eye. The satellite imagery also shows a solid band, about 120 nm at its widest extent that extends from 19.5N111W to 17N115W to 15N114W and coils into the solid white ring. In addition, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 110W-123W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection marks an outer band within 60 nm of 16N104W to 19N109W. Jova is category 4 hurricane on on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the 12 to 24 hours. In a couple of days, Jova is forecast to start weakening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has its axis along 90W north of 03N to inland Guatemala, It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 03N to 06N. A weak tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 02N to 17N. It moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 11N94W to 14N122W. It resumes southwest of Jova at 11N118W to 10N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 123W-130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 124W-133W and within 60 nm of 08N138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Category Four Hurricane Jova that is located about 490 nm south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds, outside the radii of tropical storm force winds, are north of Hurricane Jova to near 19N. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are north of 19N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with the fresh to strong winds and 4-6 ft north of 19N. Lower seas of 1-3 ft are in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Major Hurricane Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the upcoming weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. A brief pulse of fresh north gap winds is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into Thu night. Long-period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Category Four Hurricane Jova. Jova is expected to impact the waters in the vicinity of Clarion Island through early Fri as it passes to the south of the island and then off to its west. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 6-8 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present along with seas of 5-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in southeast swell south of about 07N and west of about 118W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Jova is forecast to continue to rapidly strengthen as it moves to near 15.6N 113.7W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 135 kt gusts 165 kt, then to near 16.7N 116.3W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, and continue to gradually weaken as it nears 17.8N 118.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 19.0N 121.6W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 20.3N 124.2W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt and to near 21.7N 126.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Jova is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 24.0N 129.9W Sun afternoon. Large long-period swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre