000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062100 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 06 2023 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Jova is centered near 14.2N 110.6W, or about 520 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California at 06/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are presently to near 27 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing deep convection over and near the center as the inner core appears to have become well-defined in conventional satellite imagery and microwave imagery. The convection is described as numerous strong type intensity within 60 nm of the center in the NE and 30 nm of the center SE quadrants. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in a band within 60 nm of 18N111W to 15N114W to 13N113W and to 12N111W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 110W-122W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection marks an outer band within 30 nm of 16N102W to 18N105W to 19N110W. Similar convection is from 04N to 08N between 77W-80W, and from 12N to 15N between 92W-94W. Jova is forecast to maintain is present motion through late this week. Jova is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the next day or so, and is likely to become a major hurricane by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has its axis along 88W north of 04N to inland Guatemala, It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the wave from 04N to 08N. A weak tropical wave has its axis along 101W from 02N to 17N. It moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 15N to 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 11N94W to 14N122W. It resumes southwest of Jova at 11N118W to 10N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 122W-128W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 124W-133W and within 60 nm of 08N138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on rapidly intensifying Hurricane Jova that is located about 520 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. To the N and W of Hurricane Jova, moderate to fresh northwest winds prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the upcoming weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. A brief pulse of fresh north gap winds is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into Thu night. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected See the Special Features section above for the latest information on rapidly intensifying Hurricane Jova. Jova is expected to impact the waters in the vicinity of Clarion Island through Fri as it passes to its south. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 6-8 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. High pressure centered well to the north of the area has resulted in an increased pressure gradient north of the monsoon trough producing moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present, with seas of 5-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except in mixed swell south of about 07N and west of 120W. For the forecast, Hurricane Jova is forecast to continue to rapidly strengthen as it moves to near 14.9N 112.5W this evening with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 15.7N 115.1W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 16.8N 117.7W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it reaches near 19.2N 123.0W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt and to near 20.5N 125.3W by early Sat with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Large long-period swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre