000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Newly upgraded Hurricane Jova is centered near 13.6N 109.6W, or about 610 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California, at 06/0900 UTC, moving west- northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are presently to near 17 ft, highest just NE of the center. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center, with bands of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in a broad area from 06N to 17N between 103W and 118W. Tropical force winds extend out up to 70 nm from the center, and an expansive area of strong winds is noted from 10N to 16N between 104W and 110W. Jova is expected to continue moving WNW with a gradual increase in forward motion by late week. Jova is forecast to pass well south and west of mainland Mexico. Hurricane Jova is rapidly intensifying and is likely to continue this trend for the next 36 to 48 hours. Jova is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight, and remain well SW of mainland Mexico. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis along 86W extends S from Honduras to near 02N. It is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the wave from 03N to 12N. A weak tropical wave has its axis extending S along 100W from Guerrero to 02N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 16N between 94W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica to 10N88W to 13N101W. It resumes SW of newly-upgraded Hurricane Jova at 10N115W to 10N127W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 88W and 93W and from 05N to 13N between 118W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on newly- upgraded Hurricane Jova that is located about 610 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail SE of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. To the N and W of Tropical Jova, moderate to fresh NW winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the upcoming weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. A brief pulse of fresh north gap winds is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into Thu night. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on newly-upgraded Hurricane Jova. This system is expected to impact the waters W of Clarion Island late this week. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 6 to 8 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. High pressure centered well to the north of the area has resulted in an increased pressure gradient north of the monsoon trough producing moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present, with seas of 5-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except in mixed swell south of about 07N and west of 120W. For the forecast, large swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ KONARIK