000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 13.2N 108.6W, or about 610 nm SSE of the southern tip of Baja California, at 06/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are presently to near 17 ft, highest just NE of the center. Jova continues to become better organized, with very deep cold cloud top convection present within 120 nm of the center. Outside of this core of numerous strong convection, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists in wide bands from 07N to 15N between 103W and 117W. Tropical force winds extend out up to 70 nm from the center, and an expansive area of strong winds is noted from 10N to 16N between 104W and 110W. Latest NHC forecast has Jova maintaining a general west to northwestward motion during the next several days. Jova is forecast to pass well south and west of mainland Mexico. It is forecast to rapidly intensify and is expected to become a hurricane Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis along 85W extends S from Honduras and Nicaragua to near 02N. It is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm E of the wave from 03N to 08N. A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 99W from Mexico S to 02N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 15N between 94W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama and Costa Rica to 10N88W to 13N100W. It resumes SW of Tropical Storm Jova at 10N115W to 10N127W to 07N138W. The ITCZ is now confined to areas W of 140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N of the monsoon trough axis between 135W and 138W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the monsoon trough between 87W and 93W and within 60 nm on both sides of the trough axis between 117W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Jova that is located about 610 nm south- southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail SE of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. To the N and W of Tropical Jova, moderate to fresh NW winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Tropical Storm Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. These winds are expected to change little through Thu. Fresh northwest winds are expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the upcoming weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. A brief pulse of fresh north gap winds is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Fri, and again during the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue through Thu. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly into Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Tropical Storm Jova. This system is expected to impact the waters W of Clarion Island late this week. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 5 to 7 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. High pressure centered well to the north of the area has resulted in an increased pressure gradient north of the monsoon trough producing moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft as suggested by the most recent altimeter data pass near this area. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds are present, with seas of 5-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except in mixed swell south of about 07N and west of 120W. For the forecast, large swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ KONARIK