000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052231 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 05 2023 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 12.9N 108.3W, or about 610 nm south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California at 05/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are presently to near 17 ft. Latest GOES-W satellite imagery shows that Jova continues to become better organized as seen in both visible and in infra-red. Very deep cod cloud-top convection of the numerous strong type intensity is within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong type intensity convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in wide bands is elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 101W-112W. Scattered moderate convection is south of Jova from 05N to 09N between 107W-119W. Latest ASCAT data passes revealed that peripheral 20-33 kt winds are as far as 490 nm in the SE quadrant. Latest NHC forecast has Jova maintaining a general west to northwestward motion during the next several days. Jova is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico. It is forecast to rapidly intensify and is expected to become a hurricane on Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the far eastern part of the area has its axis stretching from along the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua south along 83W and to near 02N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm east of the wave from 03N to 08N. A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 98W from 02N to 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm west of the wave from 06N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to along the northern section of Panama and to across southern Costa Rica, continuing to 09N884W to 11N93W to 12N100W. It resumes to the southwest of Jova at 10N115W to 09N129W to 07N134W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 135W-138W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the trough between 119W-121W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 89W-92W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Jova that is located about 610 nm south- southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail south of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. Moderate fresh northwest winds are over the offshore waters north of 20N. Seas of 5-7 ft are over these waters, except south 18N and west of 104W, where higher seas of 7-9 ft are present due to southeast to south swell from Jova. Lower seas of 1-3 ft are in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Tropical Storm Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. These winds are expected to change little through Thu. Fresh northwest winds are expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the upcoming weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. A brief pulse of fresh north gap winds is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region on Fri, and again during the upcoming weekend, at which time these gap winds will be of fresh to strong speeds and reaching farther downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into Thu. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Tropical Storm Jova. This system is expected to impact the waters near and W of Clarion Island late in the week. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 6-8 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. High pressure centered well to the north of the area has resulted in an increased pressure gradient north of the monsoon trough producing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and between 121W-138W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft as suggested by the most recent altimeter data pass near this area. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle north to northeast winds are present, with seas of 5-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except in mixed swell south of about 07N and west of 120W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jova is expected to impact a good part of the central forecast waters as it continues to intensify, reaching hurricane status near 13N113W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts to 85 kt, reach near 14N112W by early Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, reach near 15N114W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 16N117W early Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, move to near 17N119W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it nears 19N121W by early Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt and to near 22N126W by early on Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Large swells generated by Jova are likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north- central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre