000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051639 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 5 2023 Corrected Jova forecast under Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 13.1N 107.4W, or about 600 nm south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. at 05/1500 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Jova is quickly becoming organized. Observed convection is impressively becoming intense, with very cold cloud tops noted in the infra- red GOES-W satellite imagery. This convection consists of the numerous strong type intensity within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. In addition, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from the center within 210 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection noted in developing bands is elsewhere from 13N to 17N between 105W-110W, and also from 07N to 16N between 96W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is south of Jova from 05N to 09.5N and between 105W-110W. Latest NHC forecast has Jova maintaining a general west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days. Jova is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico. It is forecast to rapidly intensify and is expected to become a hurricane on Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has recently entered the far eastern part of the area, with its axis stretching from the western Caribbean Sea south along 81W and to near 02N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the wave from 02N to 07N between 77W-80W. A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 95W from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to 03N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the wave within 30 nm of a line from 14N95W to 16N101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to along the northern section of Panama and to across southern Costa Rica, continuing to 09N884W to 11N95W to 12N100W. It resumes to the southwest of Jova at 11N113W to 10N124W to 07N135W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm northwest of the trough between 131W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm north of the trough between 120W-126W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 113W-120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Jova that is located about 600 nm south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail south of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds are over the offshore waters north of 20N. Seas of 5-7 ft dominate the basin, except for lower seas of 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Tropical Storm Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into Thu. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Tropical Storm Jova. This system is expected to impact the waters near and W of Clarion Island late the week. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 6-8 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. High pressure centered well to the north of the area has resulted in an increased pressure gradient north of the monsoon trough producing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and between 121W-138W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft as suggested by an altimeter data pass near this area. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle north to northeast winds are present, with seas of 5-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except in mixed swell south of about 07N and west of 120W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jova is expected to impact a good part of the central forecast waters as it continues to intensify, reaching hurricane status near 14N110W by early Wed with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts to 90 kt, to near 15N113W early Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16N115W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, to near 18N118W early Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt and maintain intensity as it reaches near 19N120W by early on Fri. Large swells generate by Jova is likely to increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre