000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 12.8N 106.9W at 05/0900 UTC, or about 705 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 102W and 109W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are ongoing in the general area of the convection. Jova is expected to move gradually WNW this week, remaining well S and W of mainland Mexico. Gradual intensification is anticipated, and the Jova is forecast to become a hurricane Wed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eleven-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 93W from the Mexico-Guatemala boarder southward to just NW of the Galapagos Islands. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 82W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama to 12N98W then reforms W of newly upgraded Tropical Storm Jova near 11N115W and continues to 06N130W. The ITCZ is now confined to areas W of 140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 98W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of 82W and from 05N to 13N between 116W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Jova that is well south of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail S of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. For offshore waters N of 20N, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are ongoing. Seas of 5-7 ft dominate the basin, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Tropical Storm Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the basin, in mainly long period southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate S winds are present S of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into Thu. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Jova. This system is expected to impact the waters near and W of Clarion Island late the week. Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 6 to 7 ft is present S of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. High pressure centered well N of the area is causing an increased pressure gradient N of the monsoon trough, creating a band of moderate to fresh NE to E winds between 10N and 20N. For the remainder of the waters, gentle breezes prevail. Seas N of the Equator are 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jova is expected to impact a good part of the central forecast waters as it intensifies, with large swells raising the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north- central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ KONARIK