000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb centered near 12N102W is associated to a tropical wave. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to strong convection from 10N to 15N between 101W-105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 100W-102W. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds with seas to 8 ft are within about 60 nm of the low in the NE quadrant as indicated by an earlier ship observation. This system has become more organized during the past 24 hours. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. Near gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed through Thu night in association with this system. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 01N to 16N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Low pressure of 1007 mb is centered along the wave axis near 12N103W. It has the potential for tropical development. Aside from convection associated with the low, scattered moderate convection east of the wave to 99W and from 05N to 09N. For further details on this feature, see the Special Features section above. A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 86W from the far western Caribbean, south across Honduras and Nicaragua to near 02N. It is moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection developed east of the wave during the past few hours. This activity is noted from 07N to 10N between 83W-86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 04N to 06N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia to across Panama and to 09N79W to 11N94W to low pressure near 12N103W 1007 mb to 11N114W and to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 83W-86W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 83W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 90W-95W, from 05N to 08N between 95W-105W, from 04N to 07N between 110W-118W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 125W-132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on an area of low pressure offshore the southwest coast of Mexico that is expected to develop into a tropical depression during the next couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail S of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. For offshore waters N of 20N, moderate NW winds are ongoing. Seas of 5-7 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by the aforementioned low pressure, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Longer period southerly swell producing seas of 5-7 ft is still present east of 90W, reaching as far as the coast of western Panama. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are present. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the region. For the forecast, moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of 06N today, along with long-period south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on low pressure offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico that is expected to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. This system is expected to impact the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands late the week. Long period SW swell of 7-8 ft is present mainly south of 01N and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle breezes persist with 5-7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, aside from impacts from the expected tropical development east of 125W, long period southwest swell will continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting today. $$ Aguirre