000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032217
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave 
located south of the southern coast of Mexico are beginning to 
show slight indications of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for further development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next
two to three days. The system is forecast to move westward to 
west-northwestward, passing well south of mainland Mexico. 
Regardless of whether this system becomes a tropical cyclone in 
the next two to three days, there is the potential for strong 
winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by late Thu. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 99W, moving west at around 5 kt. 1009 
mb low pressure is centered where the wave meets the monsoon 
trough at 11.5N99W. Convection near the tropical wave is 
described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to the 1009 mb low
pressure near 11.5N99W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
12N to 14N between 98W and 102W, and from 09N to 12N between 107W
and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on an 
area of low pressure that may develop into a tropical depression 
by the middle of next week well offshore southwest Mexico.

Fresh N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along 
with seas of up to 8 ft. These winds are starting to taper off as
teh gradient flow farther offshore veers more southeasterly as
the low pressure slowly develops southwest of the region. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and combined seas to 8 ft are 
occurring in the waters beyond 60 nm off western Oaxaca and 
Guerrero on the north side of the low pressure. Higher gusts are
possible near clusters of showers and thunderstorms in this area.
Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the 
basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Expect fresh to strong winds along
the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California 
through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens along the 
peninsula.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Longer period southerly swell of 7 to 9 ft is still present east
of 90W, reaching as far as the coast of western Panama. An 
altimeter satellite pass verified 5 to 7 ft seas a little farther
west, in the lee of the Galapagos reaching to the coasts of 
Costa Rica and Nicaragua. But SW swell of 7 to 8 ft may be in 
place farther west, impacting the waters of El Salvador and 
Guatemala. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted across the 
region. Winds and seas may be higher near cluster of showers and 
a few thunderstorms off western Panama and Costa Rica beyond 90 
nm.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds will continue south of 8N through Mon, along with long 
period S to SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of 
Papagayo pulsing tonight and Mon night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for details on low 
pressure offshore of southern Mexico that is expected to become 
a tropical depression by the middle of next week and impact 
waters near the Revillagigedo Islands late next week. 

Long period SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is present mainly south of 05N
and east of 125W, along with moderate southerly winds. 
Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, aside from likely impacts from the expected
tropical development east of 125W, long period SW swell will
continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure 
farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade 
winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting early this week. 

$$
Christensen