000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030742
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 97W, moving west at around 5 kt. Low 
pressure of 1010 mb in association with this wave is centered
near 11N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm both east and west of the wave axis from 08N
to 14N. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development of this low, and a tropical depression is expected 
to form by the middle of the week as the system moves W to WNW, 
well S of mainland Mexico. However, near-gale force winds and 
very rough seas are possible in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo
Islands Thu and Fri. There is a low chance of tropical formation
within 48 hours, but a high chance within in the next 7 days. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
12N107W to 06N138W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
03N to 12N E of 95W and from 02N to 11N between 110W and 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave and associated low pressure that may develop into a tropical
depression by the middle of next week well offshore SW Mexico.

Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along
with seas of up to 8 ft. Moderate NW winds are occurring within
120 nm of the west coast of Mexico from Guerrero to the central
Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail. Seas of 4 to
6 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Expect fresh to strong winds along
the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California 
through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens along the 
peninsula.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Papagayo. Moderate SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon 
trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Long period S swell
is extending seas of 8 to 10 ft as far N as 7N, with 5 to 7 ft 
seas to the north. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds will continue south of 8N through Mon, along with long 
period S to SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of 
Papagayo pulsing tonight and Mon night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on low pressure
offshore S Mexico that is expected to become a tropical
depression by the middle of next week and impact waters W of the
Revillagigedo Islands late next week. 

Long period SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is present mainly south of 07N
and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. 
Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, aside from likely impacts from the expected
tropical development E of 125W, long period SW swell will
continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure 
farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade 
winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting early this week. 

$$
KONARIK