000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030225 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure of 1010 mb has formed where this wave is interacting with the monsoon trough near 11N96W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm W of the wave axis from 11N to 14N. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradually development of this low, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to move W to WNW, passing well S of mainland Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and a high chance through the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N103W to 05N136W. The ITCZ continues from 05N136W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 07N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 01N to 10N between 105W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave and associated low pressure that may develop into a tropical pressure by the middle of next week well offshore SW Mexico. Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas of up to 8 ft. Moderate NW winds are occurring within 120 nm of the west coast of Mexico from Guerrero to the central Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Looking ahead, a tropical depression is expected to form by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward, passing well south of mainland Mexico but may bring near-gale force winds and very rough seas to the Revillagigedo Islands by Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of California. Moderate SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Long period S swell is extending seas of 8 to 10 ft as far N as 7N, with 5 to 7 ft seas to the north. See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave inducing convection offshore Guatemala. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will continue south of 10N through Mon, along with long period S to SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing tonight and Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Tropical Waves section above for details on low pressure offshore S Mexico that is expected to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week and impact waters W of the Revillagigedo Islands late next week. Long period SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is present mainly south of 08N and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, aside from likely impacts from the expected tropical development E of 125W, long period SW swell will continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting early next week. $$ KONARIK