000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021530
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 93W, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N
between 94W and 96W. Low pressure is forecast to form in 
association with this wave this weekend, and conditions are 
forecast to be favorable for gradual tropical development of this
low over the next several days. A tropical depression is likely 
to form by the middle of next week and move W to WNW, passing 
well S of the coasts of S and SW Mexico. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a high 
chance within the next 7 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
08N95W to 14N105W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm of
the monsoon trough between 93W and 96W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave that is likely to induce low pressure development next week
offshore SW Mexico. 

A thin plume of fresh to strong northerly gap winds lingers over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore up to 180 nm offshore. Combined
seas in this plume are reaching near 8 ft with the assistance of
SW swell moving into the region. Clusters of showers and
thunderstorms are active ahead of the tropical wave farther
offshore. Moderate SW winds are also noted over the northern Gulf
of California. Gentle breezes are evident elsewhere, with 4 to 6
ft in combined seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Winds will be moderate 
or weaker elsewhere into Sun. Winds will increase to fresh 
nearshore Baja California Sun evening through Mon night as the 
pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 02N, except for moderate gap 
winds in the Papagayo region, in association with at tropical 
wave described in the section above. Higher gusts are likely in an
area of showers and thunderstorms persist beyond 90 nm off 
Nicaragua. Seas N of 02N are 5 to 7 ft. To the S of 02N, mainly 
moderate S winds dominate along with seas of 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Long period S to SW swell 
will move through these waters during this time as well. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except 
locally moderate to fresh near the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are
present from 17N to 20N west of 135W, north of a low pressure 
trough. To the east, a dissipating cold front extends from 
30N122W to 26N130W, but is producing little in the way of 
sensible weather. Most of the remainder of the area has light to 
gentle winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft. However, S of 05N and east 
of 125W, moderate S winds and seas of 7-10 ft in long period S 
swell prevail.

For the forecast, long period S swell S of 05N and E of 125W will 
prevail through the weekend. A surface trough that extends along
120W between 15N and 23N will drift W into Sun before dissipating 
See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical 
wave that is likely to induce low pressure development next week
well offshore SW Mexico. Areas from 08N to 23N between 100W and 
120W could be impacted by increasing winds and seas from the low 
and possible subsequent tropical development during the middle to
latter portion of next week. 

$$
Christensen