044 AXPZ20 KNHC 020737 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 85W and 95W, including near the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Low pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave this weekend, and conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual tropical development of this low over the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week and move W to WNW, passing well S of the coasts of S and SW Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N85W TO 10N114W to 07N132W. The ITCZ continues from 07N132W to 07N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 96W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave that is likely to induce low pressure development next week offshore SW Mexico. Moderate winds are occurring in the northern Gulf of California, with moderate to locally fresh gap winds developing the the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere into Sun. Winds will increase to fresh nearshore Baja California Sun evening through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of 02N, except for moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region and locally higher winds in and near robust convection nearshore El Salvador and Guatemala, in association with at tropical wave described in the section above. Seas N of 02N are 5 to 7 ft. To the S of 02N, mainly moderate S winds dominate along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Long period S to SW swell will move through these waters during this time as well. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present N of 17N and W of 135W, N of a low pressure trough. To the east, a dissipating cold front extends from 30N122W to 26N130W, but is producing little in the way of sensible weather. Most of the remainder of the area has light to gentle winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft. However, S of 05N and east of 125W, moderate S winds and seas of 7-10 ft in long period S swell prevail. For the forecast, long period S swell S of 05N and E of 125W will prevail through the weekend. A surface trough that extends along 120W between 15N and 23N will drift W into Sun before dissipating See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave that is likely to induce low pressure development next week well offshore SW Mexico. Areas from 08N to 23N between 100W and 120W could be impacted by increasing winds and seas from the low and possible subsequent tropical development during the middle to latter portion of next week. $$ KONARIK