000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020131
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 89W, moving W at around 10 kt. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
04N-13N between 83W-94W. Low pressure is likely to form in
association with this wave in a couple of days offshore the SW
coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation with this low within the next 7 days, and a tropical
depression may form by the middle to latter part of next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N85W TO
12N104W to 08N124W to 07N132W. The ITCZ continues from 07N132W 
to 07N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 
14N between 97W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave that may induce low pressure development next week offshore
SW Mexico. 

Convection previously noted S of Cabo San Lucas has diminished
this evening. Mainly fresh SE winds are occurring in the northern
Gulf of California, with moderate winds in the central Gulf.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft W of
Baja California, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the
Gulf of California. Long period S to SW swell dominates, except 
north of Punta Eugenia, where NW swell is the dominant swell.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong S winds will
continue in the northern Gulf of California will diminish 
tonight Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through Sat night. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere into Sun. Winds will increase to fresh 
nearshore Baja California Sun evening through Mon night as the 
pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters N of 
03N, except for moderate gap winds in the vicinity of the Gulf of
Papagayo. Seas north of 03N are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest 
swell. To the south of 03N, including the waters offshore 
Colombia and in between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 
moderate S winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft are present. Renewed 
long-period S to SW swell has reached a line from southern 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands and will quickly spread N, 
reaching Panama and Costa Rica Sat. See Tropical Waves section
above for information on a tropical wave inducing convection
over Panama and Nicaragua as well as adjacent waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Long period S to SW swell 
will move through these waters into Sat, increasing seas to 8 to 
9 ft through early Sun. Swell of 6 to 8 ft will reach the waters 
offshore Panama and Costa Rica this weekend. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to 
fresh near the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The post-tropical remnant low of former Tropical Cyclone Irwin
has moved W of the area, but is still producing some fresh to
locally strong winds from 18N to 21N W of 138W, along with seas
of 9 to 11 ft. Elsewhere from 17N to 25N W of 135W, moderate E
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail. A dissipating cold front is
noted from 30N124W to 27N135W, bringing moderate N winds and seas
to 6 ft. Winds elsewhere are mainly gentle with seas of 5 to 7
ft. However, S of 05N and east of 120W, moderate S winds and 
seas of 7-10 ft in long period S swell prevail.

For the forecast, winds and seas near 20N140W will subside
tonight. Long period S swell will spread to 6N for areas E of
120W and prevail through the weekend. A surface trough that
extends from near 24N115W to 12N120W will drift W through the
weekend before diminishing. See Tropical Waves section above for
information on a tropical wave that may induce low pressure
development next week well offshore SW Mexico. Areas from 08N to
23N between 100W and 120W could be impacted by increasing winds 
and seas from the low and possible subsequent tropical
development during the middle to latter portion of next week. 

$$
KONARIK