000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282153
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 18.6N 124.2W at 28/2100 
UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt. Seas to 15 ft are expected within 90 nm in the 
northern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
13N-22N between 118W-126W. A turn toward the west is expected 
shortly and this motion is expected to continue for the next few 
days. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so and 
Irwin is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday, if not 
sooner.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Irwin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 18N114W, then resumes 
S of Irwin near 14N122W to 07N137W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to beyond 07N140W. Scattered showers are N of 05N and E of
111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm S of 
the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends toward the Baja California Peninsula  
anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center that is north of the 
area near 33N140W. The pressure gradient between this high and 
lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate N to NW winds, with fresh winds near the coast north of 
Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
of 4-6 ft prevail across the Mexican offshore waters. Winds in 
the Gulf of California are light to gentle along with seas to 3 
ft, except higher seas of 4-6 ft from the long-period south are 
near the southern tip of Baja California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California
north of Cabo San Lazaro will persist through mid-week. 
Northerly swell will raise seas to around 8 or 9 ft north of 
Punta Eugenia by Tue, then subside by Thu evening. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle south to southwest winds prevail across most of 
the offshore waters N of 02N with seas to 4 ft in long-period
south to southwest swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands 
offshore waters, moderate to fresh south winds with seas of 4-5 
ft due to long-period south swell are noted. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds 
and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through Thu night. By Wed, an increase of 
southerly swell and seas to 7 ft could impact the Galapagos 
Island offshore waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds
will prevail through most of the week with slight to moderate 
seas in southwest swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Irwin.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging north of about 20N
and lower pressures associated with Tropical Storm Irwin and low
pressure embedded in the monsoon trough west of 140W is 
maintaining moderate to fresh north to northeast winds mainly 
north of the monsoon trough to 23N and west of 120W. Seas are 
5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and slight to 
moderate seas remain north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to 
moderate southwest winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon 
trough with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Irwin will weaken to a tropical
depression near 19.0N 126.3W Tue morning, move to 19.0N 129.0W 
Tue afternoon, 18.9N 131.7W Wed morning, become a remnant low and
move to 19.0N 134.0W Wed afternoon, 19.0N 136.0W Thu morning, 
and 19.2N 137.7W Thu afternoon. Irwin will change little in 
intensity as it moves to 19.3N 140.2W by Fri afternoon. Northerly
swell will propagate through the open waters W of the Baja 
California offshore waters tonight through at least Thu night. 
Southerly swell in the far southern waters could see 8 ft seas 
starting tonight. This swell area could travel as far north as 
05N between 92W-120W through late Thu.

$$
ERA