000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280954 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 28 2023 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 17.4N 122.5W at 28/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Banding features associated with Irwin appear broken in appearance in latest satellite imagery. The majority of the convection seen in the imagery is of the numerous moderate to isolated strong intensity seen from 15N to 20N between 114W-120W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 18N between 121W-124W. Seas peaking to 15 ft are within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Seas to around 12 ft are within 30 nm of the center in the NW and SE quadrants. Irwin is forecast to turn toward the west tonight, and continue moving westward at a similar forward speed after that time. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible through mid- week. Irwin will likely become a remnant low within the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to central Costa Rica, and continues to 10N85W to 13N99W to 16N111W. It then resumes southwest of Tropical Storm Irwin near 10N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 86W-97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends toward the Baja California Peninsula anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure center that is north of the area near 34N130W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mostly gentle to moderate N to NW winds, with fresh winds near the coast north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are in the range of 4-6 ft due to mainly long-period northwest swell that is propagating through the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia. Subsiding seas currently peaking to 8 ft as a result of Tropical Storm Irwin are present from 15N to 20N between 115W-119W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the southwest Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 4-6 ft due to long-period south swell. Winds in the Gulf of California are light to gentle along with seas to 3 ft, except higher seas of 4-6 ft from the long-period south are near the southern tip of Baja California. For the forecast, Moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will persist through mid- week. Rough seas in mixed swell associated with Tropical Storm Irwin will affect the offshore waters W of the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. Northerly swell will raise seas to around 8 or 9 ft north of Punta Eugenia by Mon night, then subside Thu evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle south to southwest winds prevail across most of the offshore waters N of 02N with seas to 4 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, moderate to fresh south winds with seas of 4-6 ft due to long-period south swell are noted. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thu night. By Wed, an increase of southerly swell and seas to 8 ft could impact the Galapagos Island offshore waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail through most of the week with slight to moderate seas in southwest swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Irwin. The pressure gradient between surface ridging north of about 20N and lower pressures associated with Tropical Storm Irwin and low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough west of 140W is maintaining moderate to fresh north to northeast winds mainly north of the monsoon trough to 23N and west of 115W, except for an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the far western part of the area from 10N to 12N west of 138W. Seas associated with the low west of 140W are 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and slight to moderate seas remain north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-8 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Irwin will maintain intensity as it moves to near 17.9N 123.9W Mon morning, to near 18.3N 126.0W Mon evening, to near 18.4N 128.7W Tue morning, to near 18.4N 131.6W Tue evening, to near 18.3N 133.9W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.5N 136.1W Wed evening. Irwin will become a remnant low as it moves to near 19.0N 140.0W late Thu 17.7N 122.5W. The low pressure west of 140W will continue to support fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas to 9 ft over the far western tropical waters through Mon. Northerly swell will move south over the open waters W of the Baja California offshore waters Mon night through at least Thu night. Southerly swell in the far southern waters could see 8-9 ft seas by Mon night. This swell area could travel as far north as 05N between 92W-120W through late Thu. $$ Aguirre