000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 17.2N 121.3W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 21N between 111W and 124W. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 30 nm NE quadrant. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Monday. Some strengthening is expected in the short term. Weakening is forecast to begin Monday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 19N115W, then resumes southwest of T.S. Irwin near 11N122W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02N and E of 98W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends toward the Baja California Peninsula anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure center NW of the area. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mostly gentle to moderate N to NW winds, with fresh winds near the coast north of Punta Eugenia. Seas range between 4 to 6 ft in mostly NW swell in the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Seas to 8 ft continue to impact the offshore waters W of the Revillagigedo Islands as T.S. Irwin moves near the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Winds in the Gulf of California are light to gentle with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will extend to Cabo San Lucas by this evening and persist through midweek. Rough seas in mixed swell associated with T.S. Irwin will affect the offshore waters W of the Revillagigedo Islands through tonight. Northerly swell will bring 8-9 ft seas N of Punta Eugenia by Mon night then subside Thu evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail across most of the offshore waters N of 02N with seas to 4 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, moderate to fresh S winds with seas 4 to 6 ft S swell are noted. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thu night. By Wednesday, an increase of southerly swell and seas to 8 ft could impact the Galapagos Island offshore waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail through most of the week with slight to moderate seas in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on T.S. Irwin. The pressure gradient between surface ridging N of 20N and low pressure associated with T.S. Irwin and a low embedded in the monsoon trough just west of 140W are maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds. These winds are mostly N of the monsoon trough to 23N and W of 115W. Seas associated with the low west of 140W range between 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, seas range 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas prevail N of 15N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Irwin will move to 17.7N 122.5W Mon morning, 18.4N 124.6W Mon afternoon, 18.6N 127.2W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.0W Tue afternoon, 18.4N 132.7W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.4N 135.2W Wed afternoon. Irwin will become a remnant low as it moves to 18.8N 138.9W by Thu afternoon. The low pressure W of 140W will continue to support rough seas to 9 ft over the far western tropical waters through Mon. Northerly swell will move south over the open waters W of the Baja California offshore waters Mon night through at least Thu night. Southerly swell in the far southern waters could see 8 to 9 ft seas by Mon night. This swell area could travel as far north as 05N between 92W and 120W through late Thu. $$ ERA