333 AXPZ20 KNHC 270405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 16.1N 118.6W at 27/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft in the E semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 18N between 112W and 117W and within 210 nm W semicircle. The system is expected to move toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed over the next couple of days, before subsequently turning toward the west and slowing down by mid-week. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow. However, the system is unlikely to reach hurricane intensity and should begin weakening by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Ten-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 128W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 10N85W to 17N108W then resumes west of Tropical Depression Ten-E near 10N122W and continues to 09N139W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 18N between 101W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends toward the Baja California Peninsula anchored by a pair of 1023 mb highs pressure centers NW of the area. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mostly gentle to moderate N to NW winds, with fresh winds near the coast north of Punta Eugenia. Seas range between 4 to 6 ft in mostly NW swell in the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Seas to 8 ft are impacting the offshore waters WSW of the Revillagigedo Islands as newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E moves near the region. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Winds in the Gulf of California are light to gentle with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will extend to Cabo San Lucas by Sun evening. These winds will persist through midweek. Rough seas in mixed swell associated with newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E will affect the offshore waters WSW of the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Sun night. Northerly swell will bring 8-9 ft seas N of Punta Eugenia by Mon night and will persist most of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail across most of the offshore waters N of 02N with seas to 4 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, moderate to locally fresh S winds with seas 4 to 6 ft S swell are noted. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through midweek. By Wednesday, an increase of southerly swell and seas to 8 ft could impact the Galapagos Island offshore waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail through most of the week with slight to moderate seas in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E The pressure gradient between surface ridging N of 16N and low pressure associated with Tropical Depression Ten-E and a low embedded in the monsoon trough just west of 140W are maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds. These winds are mostly N of the monsoon trough to 23N and W of 115W. Seas associated with the low west of 140W range between 8 to 9 ft. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas prevail N of 23N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the low pressure near 140W will continue to support rough seas to 9 ft over the far western tropical waters through Mon evening. Northerly swell will move south over the open waters W of the Baja California offshore waters Mon night through at least Thu night. Seas in excess of 8 ft will reach as far south as 20N and then merge with mixed swell associated with Tropical Depression Ten-E. Southerly swell in the far southern waters could see 8 to 9 ft seas by Mon night. This swell area could travel as far north as 05N between 92W and 120W through Thu night. $$ Ramos