000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261618 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific Gale Warning (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a low pressure system located about 750 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves WNW or NW at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and through 7 days. A gale warning has been issued for this system with seas building to at least 15 ft in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 117W from 06N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 18N between 112W and 120W. This wave is associated with Invest EP92 or system in the Special Features Section. A tropical wave is along 127W from 04N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 14N between 125W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N86W to 17N113W to a 1007 mb low pres near 10N139W. The ITCZ extends beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N t0 17N between 105W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between surface ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high NW of the area and lower pressure along Mexico continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas range 5 to 7 ft in mostly NW swell. Southerly swell is impacting the Baja California Sur offshore waters due to the influence of EP92. Gentle to locally moderate winds are across the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S and SW swell. Winds S of Cabo San Lazaro and along the Gulf of California are light to gentle with seas to 4 ft, higher at the entrance of the Gulf. Thunderstorms persist in the offshore waters of Jalisco and Michoacan. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will extend to Cabo San Lucas by Sun evening. A low pressure will develop in the offshore waters between Jalisco and Guerrero by Sun night. This weak low will bring moderate winds and seas to 7 ft to this region through Tue before it dissipates near the entrance of the Gulf of California. Otherwise, the remnants of a cold front will bring NW swell with seas to 8 ft to the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle S to SW winds are across most of the offshore waters N of 02N with seas of 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, moderate to locally fresh S winds with seas 4 to 6 ft S swell are noted. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Invest EP92, which has high chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 2 to 7 days. The pressure gradient between surface ridging N of 18N and low pressure associated with Invest EP92 as well as a low embedded in the monsoon trough near 139W are maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of the monsoon trough to 25N W of 115W. Seas in those regions fluctuate between 5 to 8 ft, except to 11 ft in the vicinity of Invest EP92. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas N of 25N and W of 125W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, the low pressure of EP92 will likely develop and move NW to WNW through Wed night. Aside from that, the low pressure near 139W will continue to support rough seas to 9 ft over the far western tropical waters through Mon evening. Otherwise, the remnants of a cold front will support northerly swell to the open waters W of the Baja California offshore waters Mon night into late Wed. Seas in excess of 8 ft will reach as far as 23N and then merge with mixed swell associated with Invest EP92. $$ AReinhart