000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260949
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0905 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms continue to 
become better organized in association with an elongated low 
pressure area located about 800 miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 8
to 13 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern 
Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 48 hours and through 7 days. Please refer to 
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 116W from 06N to 17N, moving westward 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N
to 17N between 109W and 120W. This wave is associated with 
Invest EP92 or system in the Special Features Section. 

A tropical wave is along 126W from 05N to 16N, moving westward 
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 
14N between 120W and 127W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of El Salvador 
near 13N88W to 13N103W to 14N116W to a 1011 mb low pres near 
09N138W to 08N140W. The ITCZ extends beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 104W and 108W. For
further information on convection, see the Tropical Waves 
Section. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between surface ridging anchored by a 1026
mb high NW of the area and lower pressure along Mexico continue
to support moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro along
with seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate
winds are across the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 5 to
6 ft in S and SW swell. Winds S of Cabo San Lazaro and along the
Gulf of California are light to gentle with seas to 4 ft, higher
at the entrance of the gulf. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are
in the offshore waters between southern Sinaloa and Jalisco.
Recent scatterometer data showed strong to gusty winds associated
with this area of convection.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California
north of Cabo San Lazaro will extend to Cabo San Lucas Sun
evening. A low pressure will develop in the offshore waters
between Jalisco and Guerrero by Sun night. This weak low will
bring moderate winds and seas to 7 ft to this region through Tue
before it dissipates near the entrance of the Gulf of California.
Otherwise, the remnants of a cold front will bring NW swell with
seas to 8 ft to the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night
through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle S to SW winds are across most of the offshore 
waters with seas of 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate 
seas will develop between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands tonight and continue through mid-week. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle variable winds will prevail with slight to moderate
seas in SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for details on Invest EP92,
which has high chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 2 to 7 days. 

The pressure gradient between surface ridging N of 18N and low 
pressure associated with Invest EP92 as well as a low embedded in
the monsoon trough near 139W are maintaining moderate to fresh N
to NE winds N of 06N between 110W and 125W, and N of the monsoon
to 20N W of 125W. Seas in those regions fluctuate between 5 to 8
ft, except to 11 ft in the vicinity of Invest EP92. Gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, the low
pressure of EP92 will likely develop and move NW to WNW through 
Wed night. Aside from that, the low pressure near 139W will 
continue to support rough seas to 9 ft over the far western 
tropical waters through Mon evening. Otherwise, the remnants of a
cold front will support northerly swell to the open waters W of
the Baja California offshore waters Mon night into late Wed. Seas
in excess of 8 ft will reach as far as 23N and then merge with
mixed swell associated with Invest EP92.

$$
Ramos