000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a low pressure area located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days while it moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 115W from 06N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 16N between 112W and 120W. A tropical wave is along 124W from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 14N between 123W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 15N103W to 10N125W to a 1010 mb low pres near 10N137W to 08N140W. The ITCZ extends beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 18N between 95W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds prevail off Baja California due to the subtropical ridge to the west and troughing over Mexico. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within mostly N to NW swell. Southerly swell is noted in the Baja California Sur offshore waters due to the influence of EP92. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the southern Mexico offshore waters with 5 to 7 ft seas within southerly swell. Light winds prevail in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted south of Michoacan and Guerrero due to a broad area of low pressure near 12N102W. These storms are leading to gusty winds. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development of the low pressure south of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward toward southwestern Mexico. Interests in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico along with an increase of winds and seas in the southern Mexico offshore waters. Please consult with local weather services for more information. This system has a low chance of formation in 48 hours and a medium chance in 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are noted off the coast of Nicaragua and El Salvador with seas 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle across most of the waters with moderate winds in the southern offshore waters of Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, an active monsoon trough in addition to a weak low near 12N88W will continue to support moderate winds offshore Nicaragua through this evening. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Tue night, primarily in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Invest EP92, which has high chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 2 to 7 days. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are N of the monsoon trough to 24N with seas 5 to 8 ft. Light to gentle N to NE winds are N of 24N with seas 4 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with seas 6 to 8 ft, and 8 to 10 ft near EP92. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, the low pressure of EP92 will develop and move NW to WNW through early next week. The main impact area through Sun will be the tropical eastern Pacific from 05N to 20N between 110W and 135W. $$ AKR