000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a low pressure system located well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for additional development of this system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 114W from 07N to 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N to 16N between 113W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 124W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 122W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Guatemala near 14N91W to 13N111W to 10N125W to 06N140W. The ITCZ extends beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 18N between 97W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds prevail off Baja California due to the subtropical ridge to the west and troughing over Mexico. Seas remain in the 5 to 6 ft range off the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to strong gap winds persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 6 to 7 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle breezes dominate the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Strong thunderstorms are ongoing between Michoacan and Guerrero offshore waters. Light winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will dissipate across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over Mexico. Winds and seas may increase off Guerrero and Michoacan late today through late Sat as a low potentially deepens and could impact the offshore waters. Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico with this low. Please consult with local weather services for more information. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds persist over the offshore waters of Nicaragua with seas to 6 ft associated with a weak low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over these waters as well. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere with moderate SW swell. For the forecast, the active monsoon trough will continue to support moderate cyclonic winds offshore Nicaragua through this evening. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through Tue night, primarily in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Invest EP92, which has high chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 2 to 7 days. Another area of low pressure is centered near 13N102W is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward toward southwestern Mexico. Interests in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are N of the monsoon trough to 20N with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 20N with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with moderate seas. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, low pressure areas will likely develop along the monsoon trough and move to the northwest or west-northwest through early next week. The main impact area through Sun will be the tropical eastern Pacific from 05N to 20N between 110W and 130W. $$ AReinhart