000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251005
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central East Pacific: Satellite imagery indicates a low pressure
system located well south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula near 11N114W is gradually becoming better 
defined. The system continues to produce some showers and 
thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are expected to 
become more favorable for additional development of this system 
during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward
at 8 to 13 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern 
Pacific. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a also through 7 days. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 113W from 06N to 19N, moving westward 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 
09N to 15N between 108W and 117W. 

A tropical wave is along 123W from 05N to 17N, moving westward 
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 
15N between 118W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 13N108W to 
08N137W. The ITCZ extends from 08N137W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 18N between 
92W and 108W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate N to NW winds prevail off Baja California due to the 
subtropical ridge to the west and troughing over Mexico. Seas 
remain in the 5 to 6 ft range off the Baja California Peninsula. 
Fresh to locally strong gap winds persist over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with 6 to 7 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle breezes 
dominate the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in SW 
swell. Strong thunderstorms are ongoing between Chiapas and 
Guerrero offshore waters. Light winds are noted in the Gulf of 
California with seas to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through later this morning.
Moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off Baja California 
north of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend between high 
pressure west of the region and lower pressure over Mexico. Winds
and seas may increase off Guerrero and Michoacan late today  
through late Sat as a low may deepen and impact the offshore 
waters. Heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of 
southern Mexico with this low. Please consult with local weather 
services for more information.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are over the offshore waters of Nicaragua with 
seas to 6 ft associated with a weak low. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are active over these waters as well. Light to 
gentle breezes persist elsewhere with moderate SW swell.

For the forecast, the active monsoon trough will continue to 
support moderate cyclonic winds offshore Nicaragua through this 
evening. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds and moderate 
seas will prevail elsewhere through Tue night, primarily in SW 
swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for details on Invest EP92,
which has high chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 2 to 7 days. 

Another area of low pressure is centered near 12N101W. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development
of this system, however a tropical depression could still form 
during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward or 
northward toward southwestern Mexico. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds are N of the monsoon trough to 20N
with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 20N
with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere
with moderate seas.

For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, low
pressure areas will likely develop along the monsoon trough and
move to the northwest or west-northwest through early next week.
The main impact area through Sun will be the tropical eastern
Pacific from 05N to 20N between 110W and 130W.

$$
Ramos