557 AXPZ20 KNHC 250406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific: Satellite imagery indicates a low pressure system located well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined. The system continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for additional development of this system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 8 to 13 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a also through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 112W from 05N to 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 106W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 06N to 15N between 113W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 122W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 15N between 118W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 12N106W to 10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10N127W to 10N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 84W and 92W, and from 09N to 13N between 95W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate N to NW winds prevail off Baja California due to the subtropical ridge to the west and troughing over northwest Mexico. Seas remain in the 5 to 6 ft range off the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong gap winds persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These gap winds are largely due to relatively lower pressure along the monsoon trough over the tropical eastern Pacific. Seas are to 6 ft in the Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle breezes dominate the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Strong thunderstorms continue are ongoing between Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters as well as off Sinaloa. Light winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight then taper off Fri. Moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over Mexico. Winds and seas may increase off Guerrero and Michoacan late Fri through late Sat as a low may deepen and impact the offshore waters. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of southern Mexico with this low. Please consult with local weather services for more information. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are over the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to El Salvador with seas to 8 ft. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active over these waters as well. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere with moderate SW swell. For the forecast, the active monsoon trough will continue to support fresh SW winds and rough seas off Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador through tonight. These winds and seas will diminish Fri morning as the monsoon trough lifts north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail, primarily in SW swell through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Showers and thunderstorms are starting to get a little more organized near 1007 mb low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section, centered along the monsoon trough near 11N113W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, low pressure areas will likely develop along the monsoon trough and move to the northwest or west-northwest through early next week. The main impact area through Sun will be the tropical eastern Pacific from 05N to 20N between 110W and 130W. $$ Ramos