000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222040 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 99W north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N-15N between 94W-110W. A tropical wave extends from 03N-16N with axis near 114W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-15N between 113W-120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 13N115W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N-15N between 94W-110W and north of 05N east of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-15N between 113W-120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed over the central and S Gulf of California with seas 3-4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter with seas of 5-6 ft across the Mexican offshore waters, except for 1-2 ft in the N Gulf of California. For the forecast, N gap winds will continue to pulse mainly at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America or S Mexico during the next few days. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression could form late this week while it moves slowly northwest to north- northwest, possibly supporting strong winds and rough seas off Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A pronounced monsoon trough is producing significant convection (noted above) as well as fresh to strong SW winds and seas 6-8 ft south of the trough axis. North of the monsoon trough axis, winds are gentle or lighter with seas 5-6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight before diminishing Wed. Fresh to occasionally strong SW winds will persist over offshore waters of Costa Rica and W Panama through Wed night as a broad low pressure develops along the monsoon trough. Looking ahead, winds should become moderate or lighter across all of the Central American and equatorial waters from Thu through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from 30N125W to 18N108W. The weak pressure gradient between the ridging and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing only moderate or lighter trades. Seas are 6-7 ft in mixed swell. A pronounced monsoon trough is producing significant convection (noted above) as well as fresh to strong SW winds east of 105W south of the trough axis with seas are 6-9 ft. For the forecast, SW winds will increase south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W through Thu. The surface ridge should strengthen on Fri into Sun, forcing fresh NE trades and seas to 9 ft. $$ Landsea