000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 96W north of 04N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 16N between 95W and 97W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 16N with axis near 111W, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 13N115W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 11N to 12N between 90W and 92W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong northerly gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft this evening. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters, except for lingering 15 to 20 kt winds off Baja California Sur between the subtropical ridge to the west and lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off western Oaxaca related to a tropical wave moving through the region interacting with local overnight land breezes. For the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse mainly at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few days. Any subsequent development of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts toward the northwest or north-northwest, possibly supporting fresh winds and rough seas off western Oaxaca and Guerrero late Fri into Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Buoy data from along the monsoon trough near 95W continues to show fresh westerly winds, part of a larger area of fresh to locally strong SW flow south of the monsoon trough to about 05N, and west of 100W, reaching as far east as the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama. Earlier altimeter data showed seas reaching near 8 ft in this area. The convergent SW flow is supporting a large area of showers in the same area, and a larger area of showers and thunderstorms about 90 nm off the coast of El Salvador. The lowering pressure over the monsoon trough is also supporting fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, which in turn supporting a small area of showers and thunderstorms just off the coast. Gentle breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight into Wed and again Thu night. Fresh to occasionally strong SW monsoon winds will persist over offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama with 6 to 8 ft seas into mid-week as broad low pressure develops along the monsoon trough. The low and associated winds and seas will lift northward into Nicaragua offshore waters Wed and Thu then diminish. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh southerly winds remain south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern prevails sustaining gentle to moderate winds and moderate combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, SW winds will continue to increase south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W through midweek. High pressure will weaken modestly west of 120W through mid-week and bring a return to moderate NE trade winds south of 20N. $$ Christensen