000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 92W extending southward across 
the E Bay of Campeche to the Pacific waters N of 04N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is N of 04N between 87W and 95W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 17N with axis near 106W, moving
westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is trailing the wave axis from 03N to 15N between 98W and 105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N95W to 06N102W
to 15N116W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is
across the offshore waters from Colombia to southern Nicaragua or
N of 02N between 77W and 87W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft this morning. A weak pressure
gradient is across most of the region, which is supporting light
to gentle N to NW winds along the Baja California offshore
waters, the Gulf of California and the SW Mexican offshores. N of
Punta Eugenia winds are from the SW due to an approaching surface
trough. Seas are 5 to 6 ft, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California. 

For the forecast, the northerly gap winds will continue to pulse
mainly at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. 
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form 
offshore of the coast of Central America or southern Mexico 
during the next few days. Any subsequent development of this 
system should be slow to occur while it drifts toward the 
northwest or north-northwest, possibly supporting fresh winds 
and rough seas off western Oaxaca and Guerrero by Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh gap winds
across Papagayo. Farther south, fresh SW winds are active south 
of the monsoon trough, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Slight seas are 
noted elsewhere. Convection is increasing along and south of the
monsoon trough, from the Gulf of Panama to off the Nicoya
peninsula of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse at night 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with fresh to strong pulses 
thereafter through Thu. Fresh SW monsoon winds will persist over 
offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama with 6 to 8 ft 
seas into mid week as broad low pressure develops along the 
monsoon trough. The low and associated winds and seas will lift 
northward into Nicaragua offshore waters Wed and Thu then 
diminish. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 04 UTC scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh southerly 
winds south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W. A
concurrent altimeter shows that combined seas in these waters 
are 6-8 ft. Recent altimeter data also confirms 8 to 10 ft seas
north of 25N between 120W and 135W in mixed swell in part from 
Hilary. Elsewhere in the basin, a weak pressure pattern prevails 
W of Hilary, sustaining moderate or weaker and moderate seas.

For the forecast, SW winds will continue to increase south of 
the monsoon trough and east of 120W through midweek. High 
pressure will weaken modestly west of 120W through mid-week and 
bring a return to moderate NE trade winds south of 20N.

$$
Ramos