000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172133 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 17 2023 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Recently upgraded Hurricane Hilary is centered near 15.5N 107.8W at 17/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Hilary continues to rapidly intensify as noted in its impressive and large cloud pattern that consists of numerous strong convection within 150 nm NE and 120 nm SE quadrants of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is present elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 102W-114W, and within 60 nm of an outer rain band that extends from 21N106W to 10N110W to 15N112W. Peak seas are 30 ft. Hilary is forecast to turn toward the northwest is expected Fri morning, followed by a turn toward the north- northwest and north on Sat. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Hilary could become a major hurricane later today. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Hilary. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hilary NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W from 04N northward to across western Guatemala. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 05N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 09N83W to 09N95W. It resumes west-southwest of Hurricane Hilary from near 12N115W to 11N125W and to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 81W-89W, and within 180 nm south of the trough between 121W-127W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 127W-133W, and within 60 nm of the trough between 84W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on recently upgraded Hurricane Hilary. Outside of Hurricane Hilary, a surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This is causing moderate to locally fresh NW to N of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds are noted along with seas of 1-2 ft, except seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Fresh N winds and seas to 8 ft prevail in the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, Hurricane Hilary will continue to strengthen as it reaches near 16.4N 109.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 17.6N 111.2W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, to near 19.3N 112.7W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it nears 21.2N 113.7W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, near 23.6N 114.4W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt, to near and to near 26.6N 115.0W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Hilary is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland to near 33.4N 116.8W by early Mon. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the early or middle part of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 89W. Seas are 5-7 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail elsewhere across the Central and South America forecast waters, with the exception of 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-4 ft just offshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region mainly at night trough Sun night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... What was earlier Tropical Storm Fernanda in now Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda centered near 16N132W with a pressure of 1005 mb. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 60 nm of the center in the S semicircle with seas of 9-14 ft. No deep convection is observed with Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda. The post tropical cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low and move to 16.4N 134.1W this evening, to near 16.4N 136.6W Fri morning, to near 16.4N 139.2W Fri evening and to near 16.3N 141.7W Sat morning. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda supports an area of moderate to fresh winds from 20N to 23N between 125W-133W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere under the influence of the ridge. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of monsoon trough roughly between 100W and 130W. Outside of the tropical cyclones, seas range 4-7 ft across the forecast waters, primarily in NW swell N of 20N W of 120W, and SW swell elsewhere. $$ Aguirre