000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 15.9N 119.0W at 14/2100 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Fernanda is a Category 4 hurricane. A well-defined eye continues to be visible and is surrounded by thick eyewall. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 100 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently around 34 ft with 12 ft seas extending 150 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the NW quadrant, 120 nm in the NW quadrant and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Fernanda will continue to move in a general west to west-northwest motion with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. Although a little more strengthening is possible later today, a weakening trend is likely to begin late tonight or early Tuesday. Seas will continue to stay above 20 ft through Thu, with seas subsiding by the end of the week as the system approaches 140W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fernanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days, while the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance of development in 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 98W from 08N northward to southern Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the axis. See the Special Features section for more information on this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends off the Costa Rica coast near 08N84W to 08N105W, then from 12N121W to 112N133W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 17N between 84W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 117W to 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted across the Baja California offshore waters along with seas of 4-6 ft. Locally fresh winds are noted along off the Baja California Norte coast. Inside the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 3 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere off the southern Mexico offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through the next few days. Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to fresh to strong tonight and eventually merge with a potential tropical system. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days, while the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of formation within 48 hours and high chance in 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo region and offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. This is due to a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere, light to gentle westerly winds are noted north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4-6 ft due to a long- period south to southwest swell, except 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days, while the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance of development in 7 days. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Central American offshore waters through Tue night with building seas. Meanwhile, winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo at night through the rest of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the section above for details on Hurricane Fernanda. Tropical Storm Greg is W of the forecast waters, near 11N142W at 2100 UTC. The strong winds associated with Greg are now W of the forecast waters. Seas still range 8-10 ft. These seas will subside below 8 ft by this evening. Meanwhile, pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge. Seas range 4-7 ft. For the forecast, latest NHC forecast advisory has Hurricane Fernanda continuing to be a Major Hurricane through Tue morning. Fernanda will move to 16.5N 120.3W Tue morning, 17.2N 122.4W Tue afternoon, 17.5N 124.8W Wed morning, 17.7N 127.5W Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 17.9N 130.2W Thu morning, and 18.0N 133.0W Thu afternoon. Fernanda will weaken to a remnant low near 18.0N 139.0W by Fri afternoon $$ AReinhart