000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 15.5N 116.5W at 13/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 12N to 178 between 114W and 119W. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected within 60 nm NW and SE quadrants, 120 nm NE quadrant and 30 nm sw quadrant, with maximum of 18 ft. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fernanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western East Pacific Invest (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The low is analyzed near 11N137W, with a pressure of 1009 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 132W and 140W, and seas to 10 ft are expected within this area. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The system is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific basin late tonight. This system has a high chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 09N105W, then resumes from 12N118W to 10N129W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 03N to 13N and E of 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. The now Hurricane Fernanda is expected to move generally west-northwestward away from the area. With this, mixed moderate S to SE swell will continue to affect the waters SW of Isla Socorro through tonight. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Fresh north gap winds are forecast to pulse in the Tehuantepec region through Mon, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds beginning on Tue through the end of the forecast period as a tropical depression is expected to form from an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Pacific associated with a tropical wave. The tropical system is expected to move generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico though the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching westward to near 90W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical wave with axis along 86W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the section above for details on Hurricane Fernanda and on Invest EP99. Outside of the systems mentioned above, a weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast, Hurricane Fernanda will move to 15.8N 117.6W Mon morning, 16.2N 119.0W Mon afternoon, 16.7N 120.6W Tue morning, 17.3N 122.5W Tue afternoon, 17.5N 124.9W Wed morning, and 17.7N 127.2W Wed afternoon. Fernanda will weaken to a tropical storm near 18.0N 132.5W by Thu afternoon. $$ ERA