000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fernanda is centered near near 15.0N 114.0W at 13/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased slightly to 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently to 14 ft. Satellite imagery shows that banding features have become better defined during the past several hours. A small central dense overcast features is noted. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center, except for 60 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 14N to 15N between 115W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 17N117W and 13N118W. Latest NHC forecast has Fernanda maintaining its current motion through the next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late tonight or early on Mon near 16N118W with maximum sustained speed 70 kt gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas at that time are expected to be at about 24 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Seven-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western East Pacific Invest (EP99): A broad area of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 13N between 134W-138W. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move west or west-northwestward across the far western portion of the basin through Sunday, and then cross into the Central Pacific basin tonight. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to northern Panama and across the central part of Costa Rica. It continues to 08N90W and 11N107W, where it pauses. It resumes from near 11N120W to low pressure near 10N134W 1010 mb. The ITCZ extends from the low pressure to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 81W-87W and from 05N to 09N between 102W-109W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 90W-100W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 138W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Fresh to strong north gap winds are forecast to pulse in the Tehuantepec region through Tue, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds toward the end of the forecast period as a tropical depression is expected to form from an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Pacific associated with a tropical wave that is currently analyzed along 85W north of 08N during the early or middle part of the upcoming week. The depression is expected to move generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching westward to near 90W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical wave currently over Central America and the far eastern Pacific is producing a large area of disturbed weather. Environmental conditions are anticipated to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Fernanda that is centered about 550 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and on Invest EP99 that is located in the far western part of the discussion. Outside of the systems mentioned above, a weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fernanda is forecast to strengthen to hurricane intensity late tonight or early on Mon near 16N118W with maximum sustained wind speed of 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. It is forecast to intensify slightly as it reaches near 16.0N120W by early Mon afternoon with maximum sustained wind speed of 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt and maintain this intensity through late Mon night. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. $$ Aguirre