000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP98): Satellite imagery shows that Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 112W and a 1008 mb low pres is centered near 14N112W. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while it moves westward or northwestward at about 10 kt across the central portion of the basin. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Another tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 136W from 04N to 16N. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin late Sunday. This system also has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details about these systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N103W...then resumes near 14N112W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 03N-11N and E of 98W, and from 05N-17N between 110W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Fresh to strong north gap winds are forecast in the Tehunatepec region Sun through Tue, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds toward the end of the forecast period as an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching westward to near 88W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to long-period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore Central America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A very weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds are under the influence of the ridge. A couple of areas of moderate to fresh southerly winds were noted in latest ASCAT data passes. The first south of the ITCZ from 03N to 11N between 111W-115W and the other one from 06N to 09N between 123W-125W. Seas within these areas of winds are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. However, winds and seas are forecast to increase near the Special Features low pressure systems as described above. $$ ERA