000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP98): Satellite imagery shows that showers and thunderstorms of scattered moderate to isolated strong intensity are showing signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A tropical wave is along 111W from 04N to 17N, with low pressure of 1008 mb along it near 14N. The shower and thunderstorm activity covers the area from 09N to 15N between 108W-115W. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward across the central portion of the basin. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Another tropical wave, with axis roughly along 136W from 04N to 17N, is located within a broad area of low pressure that is well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. It is producing a large area of disorganized numerous moderate to strong convection from 06N to 13N between 127W-137W. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while moving toward the west or west-northwest across the far western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sun. The GFS model suggests increasing winds and seas in association with this system during this weekend. This system also has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across central Costa Rica to 09N85W to 12N96W to low pressure near 14N110W 1009 mb to 09N119W to 10N128W to 09N135W. ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is exists from 06N to 09N between 84W-87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 117W-121W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 115W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 137W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Fresh to strong north gap winds are forecast in the Tehunatepec region Sun through Tue, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds toward the end of the forecast period as an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching westward to near 88W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to long-period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore Central America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A very weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to locally moderate winds are under the influence of the ridge. A couple of areas of moderate to fresh southerly winds were observed in overnight ASCAT data passes. The first south of the ITCZ from 03N to 11N between 111W-115W and the other one from 06N to 09N between 123W-125W. Seas within these areas of winds are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. However, winds and seas are forecast to increase near the Special Features low pressure systems as described above. $$ Aguirre