000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP98): Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Currently, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 106W and 111W. This area of low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis along 109W. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward at about 10 kt across the central portion of the basin. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Its axis is along 132W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 13N between 125W and 138W. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 kt across the far western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sunday. The GFS model suggests increasing winds and seas in association with this system during this weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ... ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Moderate to fresh N winds are forecast in the Tehunatepec region Sun through Tue, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds toward the end of the forecast period as an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer date provide observations of moderate NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to about 88W with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and the southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A very weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A ridge is in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to locally moderate winds are under the influence of the ridge. A couple of areas of moderate to fresh southerly winds are present south of the monsoon trough, particularly between 108W-114W, and between 121W-128W. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. For the forecast, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. However, winds and seas are forecast to increase near the low pressure systems located along the monsoon trough. $$ GR