000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 108W from 04N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This system continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward across the central portion of the basin. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A tropical wave is along 127W from 04N northward to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward across the far western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N84W to 12N108W to 09N115W to 11N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 04N to 08N between 80W and 93W, from 06N to 15N between 100W and 120W and from 04N to 11N between 120W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Pacific surface high pressure is located NW of the Hawaiian islands. This is resulting in a weak pressure gradient across the local area. Winds across most of the Baja California waters are moderate or weaker but are moderate to fresh within about 90 nm of the coasts from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Seas are 4-5 ft offshore and 5-6 ft within the area of moderate to fresh winds. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE are noted S of 30N, while fresh to strong SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf, where seas have built to 4-5 ft. Seas are generally 3 ft or less across the Gulf except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas through tonight, then moderate to fresh winds are expected thereafter. Moderate SW winds across the northern Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to strong at night through tonight. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate or weaker E to SE winds elsewhere N of 10N and gentle to moderate SW to W winds south of 10N. Seas are 3-5 ft in southerly swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and weather during this time. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails W of 110W. High pressure centered NW of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are under the influence of the ridge. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing gentle to moderate NE tradewinds from 11N to 15N to the west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted per scatterometer data south of 08N between 100W and 110W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in S to SW swell across the open waters. For the forecast, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Low pressure may develop near the tropical wave along 108W during the next several days. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. $$ GR