000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave previously analyzed along 90W is no longer discernible, and had been removed from the 0600 UTC surface map. A tropical wave is along 105W from 04N to 16N, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 124W from 04N northward to 16N, is moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N75.5W to 10.5N93W to 07.5N110W to 10N118W to 06N137W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 01.5N E of 85W, from 02N to 07.5N between 87W and 96W, from 05.5N to 15.5N between 97W and 112W, and from 06N to 12.5N between 114W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene has finally dissipated offshore of Baja Norte near 120W. Pacific surface high pressure is well removed from the region, and located NW of the Hawaiian islands. This is resulting in a weak pressure gradient across the local area. Winds across most of the Baja waters are moderate or weaker tonight, but are moderate to locally fresh within 90 nm of the coasts from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-5 ft offshore and 5-6 ft within the area of moderate to fresh winds. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are generally variable at 10 kt or less. However, fresh to strong W to SW gap winds prevail across northern portions, where seas have built to 4-6 ft. Seas area generally 3 ft or less across the Gulf except to 4 ft near the entrance. Strong thunderstorms across central portions of the Gulf earlier tonight have dissipated. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore southern Mexico, along the coast and offshore of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and are associated with a tropical wave. For the forecast, moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas through Thu night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to strong at night through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate or weaker SE to E winds elsewhere N of 10N and gentle to moderate SW to W winds south of 10N. Seas are 4-6 ft in southerly swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia, Panama, and eastern Costa Rica, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will shift W across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica through Thu tonight. Offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and weather during this time. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave along 105W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above several hundred NM south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward at about 15 kt across the central portion of the basin. Otherwise, a very weak pressure gradient prevails W of 120W. Strong high pressure centered NW of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge SE and weakly to near 145W. The gradient between this ridge and 1014 mb low near 17.5N133.5W and the monsoon trough W of 103W is producing gentle to moderate NE tradewinds from 11N to 27N to the west of 120W. Winds are 10 kt or less elsewhere except for moderate southerly winds south of 08N between 97W and 130W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NE swell. For the forecast, the weak low currently near 17.5N133.5W should drift northwestward and dissipate in the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Low pressure may develop near the tropical wave along 105W during the next several days, and move W-NW into the open tropical Pacific. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the central portion of the basin. $$ Stripling