000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091501
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 88W north of 04N to Central America and
the far NW Caribbean, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby 
convection is described below.

A tropical wave is along 101W/102W from 02N to near the SW 
Mexican coast, moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below.

A tropical wave is along 120W/121W from 03N northward to 17N, is
moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described 
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07.5N99W to 09N109W to
05N120W. The ITCZ extends from 12.5N133.5W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 77W and 81W, from 03N to 17N between 92W and 109W, and
from 04N to 09N between 119W and 125W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 83W and 92W, and from
10N to 13N between 137W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene remains just 
west of the Baja California Norte waters near 27N122W, and is 
disrupting the typical surface ridge extending into the area.
As a result, winds across the waters are moderate or weaker this
morning, except locally fresh to strong near Cabo San Lucas due
to a locally tight pressure gradient, and moderate to fresh near
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Gulf of
California, and 4-6 ft across the open waters in mainly long
period southerly swell. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
occurring offshore southern Mexico due to the proximity of a
tropical wave, and also from near Cabo Corrientes to the entrance
of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Pacific high pressure will shift well 
northwest of the area, while a weak trough extends along the Baja
California Peninsula. Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh to
strong across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo 
San Lucas through Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate
W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf of California will pulse to 
fresh to locally strong at night through Thu night. Fresh to 
locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat 
night and Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region in the wake of a tropical wave and as active 
convection moves through the area. Winds are moderate or weaker
elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in southerly swell, except 3-5 ft
offshore Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring offshore
Colombia and Panama, as well as offshore Nicaragua and El
Salvador, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms may shift across the
offshore waters of Colombia and Panama, as well as from Nicaragua
northward through at least tonight. Offshore winds will pulse to
moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the
Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly 
moderate seas will prevail through Sun night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the 
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development 
of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the 
weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward at 
about 15 mph across the central portion of the basin.

Otherwise, the nearly stationary 1012 mb remnant low of Eugene 
is centered near 27N122W with only moderate winds and seas of 
around 6 ft. Another 1012 mb low pressure area is N of the 
convergence zone near 17N132.5W with moderate to locally fresh 
winds and seas to around 8 ft in the NW quadrant of the low. 
Otherwise, weak ridging extends across the waters N of the 
convergence zone. Winds are moderate or weaker across the 
remainder of the open waters. Seas are 5-7 ft, except 7-9 ft from
near 15N to 25N and W of 135W in remnant, fresh NE swell.

For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will gradually 
dissipate during the next 12-24 hours. The NE swell across the NW
and W-central waters will subside through the next 12-24 hours. 
Meanwhile, the weak low currently near 17N132.5W should drift 
northwestward and dissipate through tonight. Elsewhere, fairly 
tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the 
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure
pattern dominates the region.

$$
Lewitsky