000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 853W north of 04N to Central America and the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 97W from 03N to the Mexican coast, moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 116W/117w from 04N northward to 19N, is moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 08.5N98W to 11N109W to 06.5N118W. ITCZ extends from 12N135W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 82W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 14N between 114W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene remains just west of the Baja waters tonight near 26.5N123W, and is disrupting the typical surface ridge extending into the area. As a result, winds across the Baja waters are moderate this evening, except fresh near the coast between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-6 ft across the waters of Baja Norte and 4-5 ft farther south. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds across northern portions are giving way to moderate to fresh SW gap winds developing N of Isla El Muerto, where seas are 2-3 ft and building. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, expect fresh near the coast at Cabo Corrientes. Seas there are 5-6 ft in S swell. For the forecast, Pacific high pressure will shift well northwest of the area, while a weak trough develops across the Baja Norte waters tonight through Wed. Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas this afternoon through Sat night, then from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro thereafter. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region this evening as active convection moves through the area. Winds are moderate or gentle elsewhere N of 09N, except near showers and thunderstorms. Seas are 5-6 ft in S swell except 6 to 7 ft downstream of Papagayo and SE Nicaragua. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are across the offshore waters N of Ecuador and W of 82W, potentially resulting in locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, the scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue tonight and Wed across the waters N of Ecuador. Fresh NE-E winds across the Papagayo region will veer E to SE and diminish tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The nearly stationary 1014 mb remnant low of Eugene is centered near 26.5N123W with only moderate winds and seas to 8 ft just NW of it. Outside of Eugene, strong high pressure centered north of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge southeastward to just west of California. The pressure gradient between lower pressure associated with the remnant low of Eugene, and the monsoon trough west of 130W and this strong ridge is producing a tight pressure gradient across the waters north of 15N and west of 128W, and yielding fresh to strong NE winds across the majority of this area. Seas are 7-9 ft within the areas of fresh to strong NE winds due to wind waves and S swell. Additionally, there is a weak 1011 mb low centered near 17N132W with winds of fresh to strong and seas to 9 ft within 90 NM of the NW semicircle. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will gradually dissipate during the next 24 hours. The broad zone of fresh to strong NE winds and higher seas will shift west of the area by mid-day Wed as the high center across the N Pacific shifts westward. The weak low currently near 17N131W should drift northwestward and dissipate in a couple of days. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this week several hundred miles south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves generally westward across the central portion of the basin. Active convection occurring across the tropics E of 104W this evening will shift westward into the open tropical waters during the next few days, and is expected to be the precursor to this potential system. $$ Stripling