000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081931
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 82W/83W north of 04N to Central America
and the W Caribbean, moving west at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection
is described below.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 03N to the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and southeast Mexico, moving west at around 20 kt.
Nearby convection is described below.

A tropical wave is along 115W from 04N northward to 20N, is 
moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described 
below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 10N86W to 09N95W to
14N108W to 11N122W to 14N131W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N
between 77W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 115W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene just west of the
Baja waters is disrupting the typical surface ridge in the area.
As a result, winds across the waters are moderate or weaker this
afternoon. Seas are 3-5 ft on the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft 
mainly in S swell elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, Pacific high pressure will shift well northwest of 
the area, while a weak trough develops across the Baja Norte 
waters through Wed. Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh across
the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas this 
afternoon through Sat night, then from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San
Lazaro thereafter. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf 
of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night 
through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE-E gap winds are occurring this afternoon over the Gulf 
of Papagayo region, with winds moderate or gentle elsewhere. Seas
are 5-7 ft in S swell. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
across the offshore waters N of Ecuador potentially resulting in
locally higher winds and seas.

For the forecast, the thunderstorms will continue tonight and 
Wed across the waters N of Ecuador. Fresh NE-E winds across the 
Papagayo region will diminish tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun
night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The nearly stationary 1014 mb remnant low of Eugene is centered 
near 26.5N123W with only moderate winds and seas of just less
than 8 ft near it.

Outside of Eugene, strong high pressure centered north of the 
Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge southeastward to just west of 
California. The pressure gradient between lower pressure 
associated with the remnant low of Eugene, and the monsoon trough
west of 130W and this strong ridge is producing a tight pressure
gradient across the waters north of 15N and west of 128W, and 
yielding fresh to strong NE winds across the majority of this
area. Seas are 7-10 ft within the areas of fresh to strong NE 
winds due to both wind waves and S swell. Additionally, there is 
a weak 1011 mb low centered near 17N131W with winds of fresh to 
strong and seas to 9 ft within 60 NM of the N semicircle. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will gradually 
dissipate during the next 12-24 hours. The broad zone of fresh 
to strong NE winds and higher seas will shift west of the area by
mid-day Wed as the high center across the N Pacific shifts 
westward. The weak low currently near 17N131W should drift 
northwestward and dissipate in a couple of days. Elsewhere, 
fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters 
for the end of the week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the 
region.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this week
several hundred NM south or southwest of the southwestern coast 
of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while it moves generally westward across the central portion of 
the basin.

$$
Lewitsky