000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080411 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene is centered near 25.5N 121W at 0000 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 36 kt. No deep convection is noted with Post- Tropical Eugene. While the system is no longer tropical, some remnant seas of 10 to 12 ft or greater remain within 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Remnant southerly swell continue impacting the outer waters off of Baja California W of Punta Eugenia tonight and may cause large surf and life-threatening rip current conditions along the coastlines of central and northern Baja California. Please consult products from your local weather office. The remnant low will continue to gradually weaken, with winds forecast to be 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft by Tue afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 05N to Central America and into the Gulf of Honduras, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 108W/109W from 05N northward to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 07N90W to low pressure near 17N119W to low pressure near 15N130W to 10N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N E of 88W, and from 04N to 09N between 88W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 106W and 120W, and within 60 nm N and 180 nm S of the trough between 124W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene. Outside of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene, weak ridging extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters of Mexico. Variable winds less than 15 kt prevail across the Baja near and offshore waters this evening, while fresh SW to W gap winds are developing inside the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are occurring along the coastlines of Mexico from central Sinaloa to near Acapulco. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per afternoon ASCAT scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the high seas from the former Eugene, seas across the Baja waters are 5 to 7 ft in merging N and S swell, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, associated seas to 10 ft in S to SE swell will shift NW and out of the Baja waters by morning. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Tue. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California, mainly at night, through Thu night. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse near- shore Baja California Sur Tue through early Fri, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo Corrientes tonight through early Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region producing seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S swell are N of there, with moderate SW to W winds south of the Papagayo region. Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW swell prevail S of 09N, highest S of the Galapagos Islands, and 3-6 ft offshore Colombia. Very active and strong convection continues from offshore Colombia W-NW to beyond 90W, with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms associated with two tropical waves will continue overnight across the waters E of 90W and produce locally higher winds and seas. Fresh NE-E winds will pulse to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. Southerly swell up to around 8 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will linger through mid-week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene. Outside of Eugene, high pressure ridging extends across the waters N of the monsoon trough. A 1010 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 15N130W. Another 1011 mb low was noted near 17N119W. A tight pressure gradient exists between the ridging, Eugene and the lows resulting in fresh to strong NE winds W of a line from near 30N123W to 15N140W. Seas of 7-11 ft in fresh NE swell covers this general area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, along with 5-7 ft seas, except to 8 ft S of the Equator and E of 115W. For the forecast, Eugene will continue to weaken overnight through Tue. The western low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough with will shift NW with fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft before opening up into a trough through mid- week. The ridging NW of Post-Tropical Eugene and the lows will weaken and shift NW allowing for the fresh to strong trades and resultant seas to diminish and subside through mid- week. The southerly swell to around 8 ft S of the Equator will subside by early Tue. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles S or SW of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend while it moves generally westward. $$ Stripling