000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 24.5N 118.8W at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. No significant convection is noted with Eugene. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Southerly swells generated by Eugene will continue to impact the waters and coasts of Baja California Sur and the entrance to the Gulf of California through this afternoon before subsiding. These swells are likely to cause large surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Eugene is forecast to slow down today and turn northward tomorrow through Wednesday. Additional weakening is anticipated, and Eugene will likely become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W from 05N to across Costa Rica and Nicaragua and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving W at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 105W/106W from 05N northward to near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07N95W to 15.5N116W to low pressure near 12.5N129.5W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 77W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 04N between 80W and 91W, from 05N to 13N between 100W and 111W, and from 07N to 13N between 129W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 112W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. Outside of T.S. Eugene, weak ridging extends from NW to SE across the offshore waters of Mexico. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 4-6 ft seas. A locally tight pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong SE-S winds in the northern Gulf along with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, Eugene will weaken to a remnant low near 25.3N 120.5W this evening as it exits the offshore waters, move to 26.1N 122.1W Tue morning, 26.6N 122.6W Tue evening, 27.4N 122.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Large seas in southerly swell from Eugene will continue across the waters and coasts of Baja Sur and the entrance to the Gulf of California through this afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Tue, locally strong tonight. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California, mainly at night, through Thu night. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse near-shore Baja California Sur Tue through early Fri, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo Corriente tonight through early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region along with 5-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S swell are N of there, with moderate southerly winds south of the Papagayo region. Seas of 5-8 ft in S-SW swell prevail S of the Papagayo region, highest S of the Galapagos Islands, and 3-6 ft offshore Colombia. Very active convection extends from offshore Colombia W-NW with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, deep convection from offshore Colombia W-NW will linger through at least tonight with locally higher winds and seas. Fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Tue night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. Southerly swell up to around 8 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will linger through mid- week. Slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. Outside of Eugene, high pressure ridging extends across the waters N of the monsoon trough. A 1011 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12.5N129.5W. Fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft are near the low. A tight pressure gradient exists between the ridging, Eugene and the low resulting in fresh to strong NE winds W of a line from near 30N122W to 15N140W. Seas of 7-11 ft in fresh NE swell covers this same general area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, along with 5-7 ft seas, except to 8 ft S of the Equator and E of 110W. For the forecast, Eugene will weaken to a remnant low near 25.3N 120.5W this evening as it exits the offshore waters, move to 26.1N 122.1W Tue morning, 26.6N 122.6W Tue evening, 27.4N 122.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. The low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough with will shift NW with fresh winds and seas to around 8 ft before opening up into a trough through mid- week. The ridging NW of Eugene and the low will weaken and shift NW allowing for the fresh to strong trades and resultant seas to diminish and subside through mid-week. The southerly swell to around 8 ft S of the Equator will subside by early Tue. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky