000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 23.9N 116.9W at 0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 100 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish in coverage and intensity, with widely scattered moderate convection now confined to within 90 nm across the SW semicircle. Seas to 12 ft and greater extend within 190 nm NE...90 nm SE...15 nm SW...and 30 nm NW quadrants with seas to 20 ft. A continued W-NW motion and a steady weakening trend is expected during the next 24 hours as Eugene begins to move across cooler waters and into a drier more stable environment. Eugene will exit the offshore waters of Baja Sur this morning, and is expected to become a 30 kt post-tropical cyclone tonight near 25.7N 121.4W. S swell generated by Eugene will continue to impact the waters and coasts of Baja California Sur and the entrance to the Gulf of California through this afternoon before subsiding. These swells are likely to cause large surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W from 05N into the Caribbean, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 86W. A tropical wave is along 104W from 13N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 13N between 101W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to 07.5N98W to 06.5N111W, then resumes near 15.5N117W to low pres near 13N129.5W 1012 mb to 10.5N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered to numerous strong convection is S of 11N E of 92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 95W and 117W, and from 07.5N to 13N between 117W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. Outside of T.S. Eugene, 1032 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 35N140W, and extends a ridge southeastward to the W of Eugene. The associated weak pressure gradient offshore of Baja California is leading to gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California Norte waters northward of Punta Abreojos, with seas 5 to 8 ft in mixed N and S swell. Light to gentle N to NE winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters W of 110W, with seas ranging from 5-8 ft. Winds and seas associated with Eugene dominate the offshore waters of Baja Sur, while southerly swell continues across the entrance to the Gulf of California, producing seas 6 to 8 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters. Southerly winds inside the entire Gulf of California earlier tonight have begun to shift SW and diminish, with seas 4 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Eugene will move W-NW and exit the offshore waters this morning. Eugene is expected to gradually weaken, reaching near 24.8N 119.3W this afternoon, then weaken to a remnant low tonight. Large seas in S swell from Eugene will continue across the waters and coasts of Baja Sur and the entrance to the Gulf of California through this afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle winds off Baja California Norte will continue through midday Tue as high pressure moves NW and weakens across the region, while winds diminish offshore of Baja Sur. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will return to the Baja nearshore waters Tue afternoon through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 07N with seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S to SW winds are noted S of 07N, with moderate S swell producing seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, moderate NE to E gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region will pulse each night fresh to locally strong through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and swell will continue across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador through Mon before diminishing. Moderate southerly winds will then return again Wed through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to strong NE winds and seas 7 to 11 ft continue from 13N-27N and W of 132W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 10 ft N of 10N and W of 120W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will shift NW over the next few days. The monsoon trough has lifted northward to 16N117W tonight. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is expected to maintain a broad band of fresh to strong N to NE winds across the waters N of 15N and W of 125W through today and then gradually shift NW Tue with the migrating high. Tropical Storm Eugene will cross 116W this morning and weaken quickly, reaching near 24.8N 119.3W as a minimal tropical storm this afternoon, then become to a post-tropical low tonight before dissipating Wed. A weak pressure pattern is expected across the regional waters W of 120W Wed through Fri. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell is moving through the waters south of 03N and east of 120W this morning, with seas 7 to 9 ft. This swell will fade throughout the day today. $$ Stripling