000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.0N 140.1W at 06/1500 UTC, moving west at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N and W of 139W. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm NE quadrant...90 NM SE quadrant...45 nm SW quadrant...and 120 nm NW quadrant with seas to 29 ft. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next few days, but gradual weakening is expected by mid-week. Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 21.8N 111.5W at 06/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N to 23N between 107W and 113W. Seas to 12 ft and greater extend within 120 nm NE...90 nm SE...30 nm SW...and 60 nm NW quadrants with maximum seas to 18 ft. Eugene could become a hurricane later today before weakening starts on Monday. On the forecast track, Eugene should pass to the south of the southern portion of the Baja California Sur today. Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora and Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered convection is noted near the monsoon trough S of 10N and described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 08N109W, then resumes near 17N115W to 10N133W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. 1028 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 35N137W and has begun to drift NW away from the local region. This is leading to gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters northward of Punta Abreojos, with seas 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle N to NE winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters W of 110W, with seas ranging from 5-7 ft. Winds and seas associated with T.S. Eugene dominate the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, while southerly swell has begun to move into the entrance to the Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters. Southerly winds inside the south and central Gulf of California have become moderate tonight, with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Eugene Eugene will strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 113.8W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 117.1W Mon morning, move to 25.2N 119.7W Mon evening, become post-tropical and move to 26.0N 121.4W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 27.0N 121.9W Tue evening, and 28.0N 121.5W Wed morning. Eugene will dissipate early Thu. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to gentle today, as high pressure moves NW and weakens across the region. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will return to the Baja nearshore waters Tue afternoon through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 05N with seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S winds are noted S of 05N, with moderate S swell producing seas of 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, easterly gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region will pulse each night fresh to strong through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and swell will continue across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador through Mon before diminishing. Moderate southerly winds will then return again Wed through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 10 ft N of 10N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Mon, and cross 140W into the central Pacific this afternoon. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Monday and continuing through early this week. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W today with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ ERA