000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061023 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.1N 138.3W at 0900 UTC, moving west at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Dora is maintaining a well defined eye surrounded by numerous strong convection within 75 nm NW and 45 nm SE of center. Peak seas are currently estimated around 32 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 180 nm NE...90 nm SE...45 nm SW...AND 120 nm NW quadrants. Peak seas will continue at 20 ft or greater through the next few days. Dora remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Monday night and continuing through the next several days, as it moves into the central tropical Pacific. Tropical Storm Eugene is near 20.9N 109.9W at 0900 UTC, moving northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Eugene will continue to move NW and strengthen modestly during the next 24 hours. Numerous strong convection is noted from 20N to 22N between 108.5W and 111W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere from 18N to 22N between 106W and 111.5W. Seas to 12 ft and greater extend within 90 nm NE...60 nm SE...0 nm SW...and 45 nm NW quadrants with maximum seas to 18 ft. Modest strengthening is forecast today as Eugene moves NW across the offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes, and passes just to the SW of Baja California Sur, reaching minimal hurricane strength near 22.2N 112W this afternoon, then begin to slowly weaken as it continues NW Sun night through Mon. Afterward, slow weakening is expected through Tuesday, before Eugene is expected to quickly become a remnant low within 3 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora and Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 99W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered convection is noted near the monsoon trough S of 11N and described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72.5W to 07.5N82W to 07.5N105W, then resumes near 17N112W to 09.5N134W, then resumes again from 10.5N138W to beyond 09N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N E of 111W, from 07.5N to 15.5N between 113W and 131W, and from 04.5N to 10N W of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eugene. 1028 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 35N135W and has begun to drift NW away from the local region. This is leading to gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters northward of Punta Abreojos, with seas 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle N to NE winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters W of 110W, with seas ranging from 5-7 ft. Winds and seas associated with T.S. Eugene dominate the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, while southerly swell has begun to move into the entrance to the Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters. Southerly winds inside the south and central Gulf of California have become moderate tonight, with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Eugene will continue to move NW and strengthen modestly over the next 24 hours, then begin to slowly weaken, becoming a post-tropical remnant low W of 120W by late Tue. Eugene is expected to reach near 22.2N 112W this afternoon and a minimal hurricane, with associated southerly swell moving into the coasts of Baja Sur and into the southern Gulf of California. Eugene will then move NW and begin to slowly weaken through Mon, and exit the offshore waters of central Baja Mon evening. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to gentle today, as high pressure moves NW and weakens across the region. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will return to the Baja nearshore waters Tue afternoon through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 05N with seas 4 to 6 ft in S swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate S winds are noted S of 05N, with moderate S swell producing seas of 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, easterly gap winds offshore of the Papagayo region will pulse each night fresh to strong through early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and swell will continue across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador through Mon before diminishing. Moderate southerly winds will then return again Wed through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 10 ft N of 10N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Mon, and cross 140W into the central Pacific this afternoon. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Monday and continuing through early this week. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W today with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Stripling