000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.3N 134.8W at 05/2100 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 12N to 15N between 134W and 137W. Peak seas are currently estimated around 24 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 90 nm in the N, and 60 nm S of center. Peak seas will continue to be 20 ft or greater through the weekend. Dora is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible this afternoon and tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday. Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 19.2N 107.7W at 05/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 13N to 22N between 104W and 111W. Peak seas to 10 ft are expected within 60 nm in the N semicircle. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected and the cyclone should quickly become a remnant low in 3 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora and Eugene NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough mainly S of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 14N106W, then resumes near 16N111W to 11N128W, then resumes again from 10N137W to 09N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on the now Tropical Storm Eugene. 1026 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 34N133W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and lower pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to support fresh N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to SW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, with seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Fresh N winds are noted along the coast in the Tehuantepec region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Eugene will move to 20.5N 109.4W Sun morning, 22.0N 112.0W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 115.0W Mon morning, 24.6N 118.0W Mon afternoon, 25.6N 120.1W Tue morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 26.2N 121.0W Tue afternoon. Eugene will change little in intensity as it moves to the 27.5N 121.1W by Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to gentle through Sun, as high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Moderate southerly swell, and freshening southerly winds will spread across the Gulf of California tonight through Sun as Eugene approaches Cabo San Lucas and then shifts W of Baja Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with moderate winds S of 02N. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in building S swell. For the forecast, fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night to fresh to strong through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and moderate southerly swell will spread across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador today through early Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 9 ft N of 10N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Sun, and cross 140W into the central Pacific Sun afternoon. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Dora is then expected to weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W on Sun with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ ERA