000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.3N 133.3W at 05/1500 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 10N to 16N between 132W and 140W. Peak seas are currently estimated around 23 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 90 nm in the N, and 60 nm S of center. Peak seas will continue to be 20 ft or greater through the weekend. Dora remains a category 3 small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 nm from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 45 nm. Little change in strength is expected today. Dora is expected to weaken beginning tonight and continuing through Monday. Invest EP97 is now Tropical Depression Six-E, centered near 18.2N 106.8W at 05/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 12N to 22N between 103W and 110W. Peak seas to 10 ft are expected within 60 nm in the N semicircle. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Afterward, weakening is expected and the cyclone should quickly become a remnant low in 3 days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora and Six-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough mainly S of 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 04N100W, then resumes near 15N109W to 10N127W, then resumes again from 10N136W to 09N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Six-E. 1025 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 34N132W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to support fresh N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to SW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, with seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Fresh N winds are noted along the coast in the Tehuantepec region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Six-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.4N 108.3W this evening, move to 21.0N 110.8W Sun morning, 22.2N 113.7W Sun evening, 23.4N 116.8W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 24.4N 119.4W Mon evening, and become a remnant low and move to 25.0N 121.3W Tue morning. Six-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 25.6N 122.3W by early Wed. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to gentle through Sun, as high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Moderate southerly swell, and freshening southerly winds will spread across the Gulf of California tonight through Sun as the T.D. approaches Cabo San Lucas and then shifts W of Baja Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with moderate winds S of 02N. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in building S swell. For the forecast, moderate with fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night to fresh to strong through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and moderate southerly swell will spread across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador today through early Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 9 ft N of 10N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Sun, and cross 140W into the central Pacific Sun afternoon. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next few days, but a generally slow weakening trend is forecast. Moderate to large E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora through the weekend. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Sun. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ ERA