430 AXPZ20 KNHC 050958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.5N 131.6W at 0900 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Dora remains a very small hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending only 40 nm from center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails within 75 nm NE of the center, and 45 nm SW of the center. Satellite imagery early this morning shows a small eye attempting to clear out. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next few days, but a generally slow weakening trend is forecast. Dora will continue on a westward track and moves beyond 140W on Sun. Peak seas are currently estimated around 24 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 90 nm in the N, and 60 nm S of center. Peak seas will continue to be 20 ft or greater through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have decreased in coverage over the past several hours. However, a 1006 mb surface low is analyzed near 17N105.5W, and the system continues to show signs of becoming better defined. Strong winds are noted to the NE and E of the low center, between the low and the near shore waters of Michoacan and Colima, where seas are 7-10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. A gale warning has been issued for tonight and Sun in anticipation of intensifying winds. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. The system has a high chance for tropical development withing the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at the website - www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 02.5N to 11N between 92W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 07N92W to 04.5N101W, then resumes from 1006 mb low pres near 17N105.5W to 11.5N127W, then resumes again from 10N133W to 09N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 10W east of 107W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 107W and 123W, and from 05.5N to 11N between 123W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1027 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 34.5N132W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to support fresh N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, with seas 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to SW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, with seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Strong thunderstorms continue along the coast between Acapulco and southern portions of Sinaloa, where strong gusty winds to 30 kt are expected. Fresh N winds are noted along the coast in the Tehuantepec region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte early this morning will gradually diminish to gentle through Sun, as high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. 1006 mb low pressure offshore of southwestern Mexico, near 17N105.5W, is expected to become better organized during the next day or so, as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, and parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely to form during the weekend, and a gale warning has been issued in anticipation. Strong to gale force winds and high seas are expected NE of the low as it moves across the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters through Mon. Moderate southerly swell, and freshening southerly winds will spread across the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun as the low center approaches Cabo San Lucas and then shifts W of Baja Sur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with moderate winds S of 02N. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in building S swell. For the forecast, moderate with fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night to fresh to strong through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Moderate southerly winds and moderate southerly swell will spread across the Galapagos Islands and waters of Ecuador today through early Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 9 ft N of 10N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Sun, and cross 140W into the central Pacific Sun afternoon. Some minor fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next few days, but a generally slow weakening trend is forecast. Moderate to large E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora through the weekend. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Sun. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Stripling