000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 13.7N 130.1W at 0300 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Dora remains a very small hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending only 40 nm from center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails within 90 nm of the center, except 60 nm SW quadrant. Some minor weakening is forecast through Sunday as Dora continues on a westward track and moves beyond 140w. Peak seas are currently estimated around 23 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant, 45 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm across the NW quadrant. Peak seas will continue to be 20 ft or greater through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become better organized over the past several hours. A tropical wave is associated with this area of convection, with axis extending along 105W. Minimum low pres at the surface is 1006 mb located near 16N104.5W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted between the low and the near shore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero, where seas are 6-8 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves west- northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. The system has a high chance for tropical development withing the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at the web- site www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W from 04N to SW Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N between 94W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N72W to 08N87W to 10N95W, then resumes from 1006 mb low pres near 16N104.5W to 11N125W, then resumes again from 10N133W to 10N140W. Outside of convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 05.5W between 81W and 102W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 14.5N between 104W and 120W, and from 06.5N to 11N between 121W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1025 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 33.5N132W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to support fresh N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, with seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Strong thunderstorms continue along the coast between Manzanillo and southern portions of Sinaloa, where strong gusty winds to 30 kt are expected. Fresh N winds are noted along the coast in the Tehuantepec region with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas will continue off Baja California Norte through Sun, before high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Looking ahead, the area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is expected to become better organized during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop along the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate with fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse each night to fresh to strong through early Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate southerly winds with increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Seas range 6 to 8 ft from 10N to 14N and W of 138W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue moving westward through Sun, and cross 140W into the central Pacific Sun afternoon. Dora will change little in intensity. Moderate to large E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora through the weekend. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas to 8 ft, then will subside on Sat. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Stripling