000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Dora is centered near 14.1N 125.1W at 0900 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has decreased slightly to 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. This makes Dora a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An eye is no longer visible in satellite imagery, with numerous strong convection within 60 nm of the center, except 90 nm N quadrant. Dora remains a small system, with tropical storm force winds extending only 40 nm from center. Peak seas are currently estimated around 24 ft with the 12 ft seas extending within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the NW quadrant, 75 nm in the SE quadrant, and 60 nm across the SW quadrant. Dora will continue to move westward over the next several days. Some minor fluctuations in strength are possible through Fri morning, then weakening is expected late Friday through Sunday. Seas will continue to be over 20 ft through Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Dora NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W from 04N to Guatemala, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over land between Honduras and Belize. However, no significant convection is noted over the adjacent Pacific waters at this time. A tropical wave is along 102W-103W from 07N northward to southern Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 13N between 98W and 104W. A tropical wave is along 140W-141W from 03N to 18N with an associated 1012 mb low near 11N139W. The wave is moving west at 15 kt, while the low is drifting west. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09.5N to 12N between 136W and 139W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N72W to 09N76W to 08.5N93W to developing low pres near 13N103W 1009 mb, to 09.5N122W to low pres near 11N139W 1012 mb. Outside of convection described above with the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 07W east of 88W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 105W and 120W, and from 06N to 10N between 125W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1025 mb high pressure is centered NW of the area near 33N131W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure over the northern Gulf of California continues to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters southward to Punta Abreojos, where seas are 6-9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes, where seas area 4-6 ft. Strong thunderstorms continue to shift westward away from land across the waters between Manzanillo and central portions of Sinaloa, where strong gusty winds to 30 kt have likely occurred. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted south of the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters with seas 5-7 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with moderate seas in open waters and slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect fresh to strong NW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas off Baja California Norte through Sun, before high pressure shifts NW and weakens across the region. Looking ahead, a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to become better organized with this feature during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 7 days. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected to develop along the southern Mexico and Baja California offshore waters this afternoon through the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, and extend downwind to near 89W. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail N of 04N with seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except for moderate N winds across the western Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle S winds are noted S of 04N, with locally moderate winds mostly around the Galapagos Islands. Seas there range 6 to 7 ft in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the Colombia coast. For the forecast, moderate with locally fresh easterly gap winds offshore from the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong tonight into early Fri morning, then continue this nocturnal trend through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas should persist for the rest of the offshore waters into early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate southerly winds with increased southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Sat into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Dora. Outside of Dora, mostly moderate winds are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W. Locally fresh winds are noted along the tropical wave and low pressure near 11N139W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Swell from the southern hemisphere south of 10N in between 100W and 140W persists around 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Dora will continue to move W to W-SW over the next few days, while gradually weakening. Moderate to large E to SE swell will continue within 120-180 nm NE through NW of Dora during this time. Meanwhile, farther south, southerly swell will continue to move into the waters south of 10N and west of 110W through tonight with combined seas 8 to 9 ft, then will subside. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist across the region. $$ Stripling